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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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