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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Planning Commission, India
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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