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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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