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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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