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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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