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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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