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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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