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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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