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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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