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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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