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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
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Showing 2711 to 2715 news of total 6871 |
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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