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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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