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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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