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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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