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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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