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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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