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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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