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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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