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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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