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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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