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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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