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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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