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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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