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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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