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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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