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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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