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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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