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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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