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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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