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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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