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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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