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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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