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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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