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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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