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Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
 Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for the shipping industry more specifically.
Historically each phase of the cycle lasts several years and currently we are undoubtedly way into the bust phase the exact length of which we are not in position tell. The boom phase lasted almost a decade, since early 2000s, and now we are in the fourth year that prices are moving south.
Among the various commodities, metals have been severely impacted; iron ore and nickel prices plummeted near to decade lows just lately, while the price of copper also plunged to its lower level in more than six years. Among the various explanations proposed for this downswing, the increased supply amidst an environment of slowing demand features prominently.
High levels of investment during the boom phase increased production capacity, while at the same time the Chinese economic growth absorbed much of the production on a global basis. The weakening of emerging economies and most important China’s economic slowdown has affected the market and severely impacted prices.
Moreover, overall prospects for global growth also remain weak as IMF expects a global GDP growth rate of about 3% for 2015 and of about 3.5% for 2016, with both figures having been revised downwards during this year. Global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9%, weaker than forecasted, while the recent political turmoil in the Middle East is a factor that is expected to further affect market sentiment. At this point, it is uncertainty that dominates the markets and nothing seems to indicate that things will improve sharply in the short term.
The aforementioned slowdown in global GDP growth is also reflected in the weakness of global trade that according to OECD is expected to grow only by 2% this year, one of the worst rates during the last five decades.
Hence, it comes as no surprise that some days ago the BDI touched its all-time low. The slowing demand for transport capacity and the oversupply of tonnage are driving freight rates down, while at the same time low levels of demo prices, obstructs the market from finding its balance faster.
Yet, as we are approaching the end of the year, we should not lose our optimism for 2016. After all, things from a macroeconomic point of view are expected to be better next year, not much, but definitely better.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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