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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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Showing 2706 to 2710 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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