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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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