We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
|
|
|
Showing 2711 to 2715 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
