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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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Showing 2696 to 2700 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
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