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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
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Showing 2716 to 2720 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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