We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
|
|
|
Showing 2691 to 2695 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
