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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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