We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
Monday, 30 November 15
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
ASSOCARBONI is in favour of an international mechanism to provide financial support to countries building high efficiency low emission coal plants. ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CS 5000 GAR COAL INDEX FIRM D-O-D; WEAK W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index up slightly day over day.
According to the system generated index, the CS 50 (5000 GAR coal) was ...
Monday, 30 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (9.78%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 29 November 15
CAPE INDEX SURGES 383 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK, BOOSTS BALTIC DRY INDEX
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, fell to 498 points on 20 November and touched a 30-year low, but on 27 November th ...
|
|
|
Showing 2681 to 2685 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
|
| |
| |
|
