We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
|
|
|
Showing 2676 to 2680 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
