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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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