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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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