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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
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Showing 2661 to 2665 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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