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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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