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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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