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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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