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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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