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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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