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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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