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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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