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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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