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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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