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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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