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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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