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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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