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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 9% LOWER THAN Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
RATES FOR CAPES KEPT MOVING SOUTH - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: With the BDI currently standing at less than 30 points above the historical lows marked in February this year and with activity acros ...
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, ...
Tuesday, 17 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR (SEMI) ANTHRACITE COAL FOR SEOCHEON POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of (Semi) Anthracite for Ja ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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