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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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