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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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