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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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